On the first trading day of June, the USDX closed down 0.69%, pressured by renewed concerns over tariff policies and a disappointing ISM Manufacturing report. The U.S. Dollar gave up gains from the prior week as investors reacted to President Trump’s plans to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%. The USDX rebounded the following day, closing up 0.68% on renewed demand for the U.S. Dollar. On June 4th, the ADP Employment Change for May came in lower than expected, with just 37,000 new jobs (later revised to 29,000), against the anticipated 115,000 and a downwardly revised 60,000 for April. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI also missed expectations, showing a contraction. The USDX closed the day down 0.36% at 98.76. The following day, the index reached a low of 98.30 before recovering to close at 98.67 with a modest loss of 0.08%. On June 6th, Nonfarm Payrolls showed a gain of 139,000 jobs (later revised to 144,000), exceeding the market estimate of 130,000, although below April’s downwardly revised 147,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%. The USDX closed the day at 99.17, with a gain of 0.53%. The U.S. Dollar Index ® ended the week with a loss of 0.14%.

The following week, the USDX traded sideways during the first few days, trading within the range created in early June. On June 11th, the Annual Core Inflation rate (excluding food and energy) remained steady at 2.8% for the 12 months ending in May, while the Consumer Price Index for the same period edged up to 2.4%, up from 2.3% in April. The USDX closed the day at 98.62 with a loss of 0.34%. Bearish sentiment persisted on June 12th after the Producer Price Index data cooled slightly to 3% from the upwardly revised 3.2%. The USDX closed with a loss of 0.60%, breaching the lower boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands and reaching a daily support zone at 97.85 – 97.30, which was nested within a wider weekly support zone at 97.74 – 95.66. The bulls returned on the final trading day of the week, supported by a stronger Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and the USDX closed at 97.70, up 0.44%. The U.S. Dollar Index ® ended the week with a loss of 1.49%.

On June 16th, the USDX dipped to a low of 97.23 before recovering slightly to close at 97.70, still down 0.18% on the day. The following day, despite U.S. Retail Sales for May falling more sharply than expected, down 0.9% versus the anticipated 0.7% drop, the index rebounded, closing up 0.66% at 98.41. On June 18th, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 4.25% – 4.50%, maintaining a cautious, data-dependent stance amid ongoing trade tariff uncertainties. The Fed’s updated forecasts showed slower growth and higher inflation due to tariffs, with Chair Powell signaling two likely rate cuts this year while emphasizing the need for close monitoring of economic conditions before further moves. The USDX after dipping to a low of 98.04 closed at 98.46 with a gain of 0.06%. On June 19th, the USDX reached a high of 98.76, testing the midpoint of the Bollinger Bands, where it encountered resistance. The index pulled back to close at 98.36, resulting in a 0.15% loss. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed at 98.34 with a small gain of 0.06% on the day, ending the week with an overall gain of 0.48%.

On June 23rd, the USDX reached a high of 99.02, met resistance on the 30 EMA, and pulled back. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data was released, showing an increase to 52 in May, signaling a further expansion in U.S. factory activity, while the S&P Global Services PMI also increased from the prior month. Even with this positive data, the demand for the U.S. Dollar weakened and the USDX closed the day at 97.97 with a loss of 0.69%. The bearish sentiment continued June 24th, and the index dropped further, testing the lower boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands before closing at 97.56 with a loss of 0.30%. The bearish momentum gathered pace and the USDX closed lower the following day, down 0.26%. On June 26th, Q1 Gross Domestic Product Annualized data missed expectations with a greater contraction expected at -0.5%. The USDX continued its downward path, closing lower after the release and for the remainder of the week. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the week at 96.88 with a loss of -1.79%, the worst weekly performance of the month. The bearish sentiment continued into the final trading day, closing with a loss of 0.46%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the month at 96.41, down 2.92%, marking its worst first half of the year in decades.

The U.S. Dollar Index ® remained in a downtrend on the weekly chart and switched to a downtrend on the daily after consistently trading below the 20, 30, and 50-period SMAs and EMAs.

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